The forecast of aluminum profile price
Aluminum profile manufacturer was suffering a doom period at this time last year. People wonder can aluminum be priced to 8000 RMB. To our surprise, the price was being up since then. Many people including Chinese aluminum profiles supplier forecast the aluminum might be priced to 11,000 RMB. We believe that the falling reason is that the long speculative disk in the foamy commodities is on the way.
We believe that the aluminum profile price bubble has been broken. The industry has nearly 50% of enterprises are suffering a loss. But aluminum is still in great demand, the off-season is real off. Aluminum has become the value of depression, aluminum prices need to return to rational stage.
From the macro side: next year, the economy will be more stable. From financial side, recently the central bank did not sit idly by facing the raise of inter-bank repurchase interest rates plus the end of the year capital tightening. Next year’s monetary policy is sound, and it will maintain a stable and reasonable stage. The central economic work conference mentioned the suppression of asset bubbles, which mainly refers to real estate and debt.
Aluminum industry is now suffering a huge loss
the weighted cost of electrolytic aluminum in December has reached 13,400 RMB, affecting the price of coal and alumina with the impact of supply and demand. Both coal and alumina have a strong support. Aluminum industry is now suffering a huge loss.
To sum up: at this stage there is still a strong demand for aluminum, off-season is not real off. Supply will not surge, the cost of support significantly. I believe that aluminum will take the lead in the rebound after the panic of mass and a objective understanding of the macro-environment.
