Analysis on the trend of aluminum market in the near future

As one of the biggest aluminum extrusion manufacturers in China, GOLDAPPLE ALUMINUM GROUP always has pay great atention to international aluminium trends. To analyze the trend of future aluminum market, firstly,is to analyze the influence factors of supply and demand in the market,Mr.Zhao Wuzhuang announce that influence factors of supply and demand in the market are about four points:

 

1. Rapid rise in production costs. As of September 2017, domestic alumina, carbon anode, electrolytic aluminum industry average electricity prices rose to 3600 Rmb/ ton, 4500 Rmb/ ton, 0.35 Rmb/ kwh; alumina price is rose 56% comparing with the lowest 2300 Rmb/ ton; carbon anode price is rose 45%; overall, the production cost per unit of electrolytic aluminum is rose about 3850 yuan / ton than the lowest.

 

2., The policy factors have been exhausted. In 2017, China’s “supply side”, “environmental policy” two pronged approach, electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing down. However, with the policy landing, China’s electrolytic aluminum production has been transferred to the normal production stage, the market shortage is expected to decline significantly. In addition, as of the end of September 2017, China aluminum inventory reached record highs, with nearly 1 million 700 thousand tons, the policy is expected to weaken the case, do not rule out speculation funds back aluminum prices, market prices caused by short-term shocks down likely.

 

 

3. Shortage structure had been continued in the international aluminum market.Although foreign electrolytic aluminum producers are very profitable, and the market has been closed to restart the production part, accelerate the construction of new capacity and the situation; but consider this part of the market supply capacity in the short term is difficult to have substantive effect, so the shortage of supply and demand is expected to remain in a period of international pattern of aluminum city the price of aluminum support.

 

4. The economy and trade environment is complex and changeable, demand growth variables exist. Since the beginning of this year, the overall macroeconomic situation at home and abroad is good, and the good performance of some sectors has brought some support to the growth of aluminum consumption. But in the face of the current tightening monetary policy, the future of the global manufacturing industry is not optimistic, the aluminum consumption growth constitutes a certain inhibition. At the same time, the domestic and foreign aluminum trade friction heats up, the Chinese aluminum exports have an impact, taking into account the current Chinese aluminum export in aluminum consumption in proportion, which is aluminum consumption growth is expected to bring some variables. 

 

In short, with the deepening of the supply-side structural reform, strengthening industry self-discipline, and create a good market environment, China’s aluminum industry in 2017 will maintain the smooth operation of the overall production, benefit continued to good situation. However, overcapacity, international trade disputes, rising costs and other issues still can not be ignored.