Recently, aluminum ingots social inventories are not obvious, the cash discount level is one month before the time limit, and aluminum strong support, and the Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in 14700 yuan/ton.However, entered the stage of seasonal tired library as the aluminum ingots, aluminum, will be tested again.But in the reform of supply side constraints, cost support strength is stronger, will limit price decline to a certain extent.
Basic stagnant demand
According to usual practice, smelter is not shut down during the Spring Festival, the downstream processing enterprises first holiday, the stagnation of the basic demand.At the same time, because of railway, strained and weather factors, smelter inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, the backlog of inventory holiday will be a lot of transfer to the inventory and distribution center.As the holiday starts in succession, the downstream inventory gradually be digested, so before and after the Spring Festival is a traditional seasonal library stage.
To sum up, aluminum extrusion manufacturers, very weak pattern due to the poor conduction will exist for a long time, the domestic aluminum market direction mainly depends on the internal market performance. Downstream consumption during the Spring Festival is stagnant, inventory into the accumulation stage again, aluminum prices will dip again absolutely seeking new balance.Constraints on the supply side, however, reform, prices become clear in the margin of safety, is not enough to lead to market panic.When prices hit cost area lead to capacity on the less than expected, prices have to rise again.
