The lower price of aluminium profile
Aluminum profile manufacturer was suffering a doom period at this time last year. People wonder can aluminum be priced to 8000 RMB. To our surprise, the price was being up since then. Many people forecast the aluminum might be priced to 11,000 RMB. We believe that the falling reason is that the long speculative disk in the foamy commodities is on the way.
We believe that the aluminum profile price bubble has been broken. The industry has nearly 50% of enterprises are suffering a loss. Aluminum has become the value of depression. After all, need to return to rational stage, designing the layout of next year.
next year the economy will be more stable. Commodity demand will not be worse than 2016, especially the export situation will be better. From financial side, recently the central bank did not sit idly by facing the raise of inter-bank repurchase interest rates plus the end of the year capital tightening. Next year’s monetary policy is sound, it will maintain a stable and reasonable stage. The central economic work conference mentioned the suppression of asset bubbles which mainly refers to real estate and debt.
The supply and demand side of aluminum
The supply and demand side of aluminum: electrolytic aluminum supply side will not surge by the end of February. Aluminum demand will not suffer a short off-season. electrolytic aluminum will slow the start of the new capacity from now to next year, not to mention the state has ban on new electrolytic aluminum. Reportedly, the deterioration of transport conditions in Xinjiang resulted in the fail of concentrated inventory. At present, in addition to Xinjiang, Henan have excess demand of aluminum water. The downstream of Huanghe, sales has surplus that in November.
Cost: the weighted cost of electrolytic aluminum in December has reached 13,400 RMB, affecting the price of coal and alumina with the impact of supply and demand. Both coal and alumina have a strong support. Aluminum industry is now suffering a huge loss.
at this stage there is still a strong demand for aluminum, off-season is not real off. Supply will not surge, the cost of support significantly. I believe that aluminum will take the lead in the rebound after the panic of mass and a objective understanding of the macro-environment.
